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| Microtrends: The Small Forces Behind Tomorrow's Big Changes | 
 enlarge | Manufacturer: Twelve
Category: EBooks
List Price: $19.99
Buy New: $9.99
You Save: $10.00 (50%)
Avg. Customer Rating:  68 reviews
Sales Rank: 4689
Format: Kindle Book
Media: Kindle Edition
Number Of Items: 1
Pages: 448
Dewey Decimal Number: 303.4973
ASIN: B000VUD79A
Publication Date: September 5, 2007
Availability: Usually ships in 24 hours
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| Customer Reviews:
 75 Interesting Thoughts About the Future! June 23, 2008
1 out of 1 found this review helpful
"Microtrends" is very informative. It looks at the beginnings of new trends by looking at some which may initially only show up in 1% of population samples. The reason 1% is used is because with populations so large, 1% can be a very large number, especially with the flattening of the world, where even isolated minorities can connect so easily via the Internet, etc and generate critical masses. The author, Mark Penn, is a polling expert and relates that numbers will almost always take you where you want to go if you know how to read them. The book is an easy read with about 3 -4 pages for each of the 75 'microtrends' covered. All were interesting, but a few caught my eye.
1. Sex-Ratio Singles. Because the percentage of single women is increasing and historians have documented that a society with too many unattached men leads to war, will a society with too many unattached women lead to peace?
2. Number Junkies. Americans love numbers, but not arithmetic. Despite the popularity of TV shows like 'CSI' and 'Numb3rs' and movies like 'Good Will Hunting', 'A Beautiful Mind' and 'The Da Vinci Code', Harvard last year only had 77 math majors out of 6700 undergraduates.
3. Eurostars. Since European couples are having less kids and since only and oldest children tend to be highly motivated, perfectionists and inclined to leadership, Europe's youth will be an especially talented group. The author notes that every US astronaut was an oldest child.
4. Aspiring Snipers. In a small poll of CA youths, 1% looked to be snipers in ten years. Sure, this could be troublesome, but since snipers, besides being so talented, are more needed in urban situations in war and is a more moral way to kill than bombing, since bombing kills so many innocent victims. Previously, one would have expected more youths to aspire to be military pilots. Perhaps video games caused the change. There is much to think about, here.
5. Protestant Hispanics. Which country sends the most Protestants to the US? Mexico. Interesting!
Excellent analysis of contemporary society May 28, 2008
5 out of 5 found this review helpful
This is a really fun and fascinating book. Penn's theory is "the Devil is in the details." Don't look for overarching trends that end up being vapid and inaccurate. Look instead for the hundreds of small trends under the radar screen that in combination radically changes society.
To enjoy this book read the introduction and the conclusion first. Then, cherry pick the trends you are most interested in. In the introduction, Penn outline his theory of the 1% threshold. By the time 1% of Americans do something this represents a huge cluster of 3 million people that is worth paying attention to. Within the conclusion, Penn makes sense of all those disparate trends. That's where he explains how our society is becoming increasingly fragmented because of the growth of choice in lifestyle, values, and religions. Thus, many trends are contradictory. We live in an increasingly secular world with a rise in religions. Both trends (secularism and religion) thrive simultaneously. Each trend he analyses is a stand alone short paper on a specific subject. At some point, you may run out of trends you are interested in. You don't have to read all 73 trends to enjoy the book.
Within each trend analysis, Penn first observes the data and how that trend emerged and came to be. Next he outlines what are the trend's implications. The people representing that trend often make up a niche associated with the creation of new markets, voting block or cultural influence.
Sometimes, you may think several trends converge. In other words, the emergence of single women must correlate to the surge in Cougars (women with younger boyfriends) and Wordy Women (successful career women in law, journalism, PR, and advertising). These women may be all the same ones: single-successful-liberated. Another potential convergence is the Long Attention Spanners, DIY Doctors, Swing Voter, and Sun Haters. Here you have a mature educated crowd that likes to think for themselves especially when pertaining to their health and politics.
Many of his trends refer to entire books. His `Educated Terrorists' trend relies on Alan Krueger's What Makes a Terrorist: Economics and the Roots of Terrorism (Lionel Robbins Lectures). Similarly, his `Shy Millionaire' liens on The Millionaire Next Door.
On the other hand, other trends are truly original. I had never heard of the Do-It-Yourself Doctors. These people research their symptoms, render their own diagnostics and administer their own cure. They have changed the patient-doctor relationship to one of retailer-customer. The doctor is just there to facilitate procurement of prescription drugs, tests, and surgical intervention when necessary. Just as the overall population, they distrust the medical establishment. Trust in the latter has decreased from 77% in 1966 to only 33% currently.
His depiction of the `Impressionable Elites' is also counterintuitive. It is the higher income and better educated that care more about personality and less about issues in Presidential Elections. This is just the reverse of what we believe. The archetype is star journalists and newscasters who are certainly wealthy and educated. But, they focus on sound bites, looks, hair cuts, and other trivia. Apparently, the rest of us are more concerned about substantive issues such as foreign policy, health care, education, and economic competitiveness. Penn deplores the advent of the 527 advocacy organizations and Elite Donors who give readily $10,000 a pop to affiliated political groups. Given these are funded by the Impressionable Elites; they foster more trivia than substance on our political debates.
His chapter on the power of the swing voter is excellent. Independents have increased from 25% to 33% of the voters over the past 50 years. He indicated how Karl Rove strategy of rallying the conservative base failed in the 2006 mid-term election. However, Karl Rove did not have much of a role in this election. But, he sure did in both 2000 and 2004. Penn makes the argument that one independent voter amounts to two polarized voters because they represent a swing in the numbers. He is right. But, the counter argument is that it is a lot more difficult to convince an independent voter to change his mind than to tell your base to just show up and vote. Nevertheless, this is an excellent section that parallels very much the equally fascinating work in Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America (Great Questions in Politics Series) (2nd Edition) (Great Questions in Politics)
His chapter on active, employed elders suggests the fiscal stress on Social Security will be less than conveyed by the pundits. His chapter on the aging of Europe is also interesting. The median age of Europeans is expected to increase from 37.7 years to 52.7 years by 2050. While for Americans it will remain stable around 36 years. This has obviously dire fiscal implication for Europe. But, he thinks the next generation of Europeans will solve the related problems as they will be a generation of confident, problem-solving, achieving only children. This sounds a bit facile, but interesting nonetheless.
As he mentions in his conclusion, trends often have counter trends. There are more Muslim terrorists. But, there are also more Moderate Muslims in America. That's a fascinating trend he uncovers. He also outlines the drastic difference between the American vs European Muslims. The American ones are moderate, well-integrated, educated, successful, and prosperous. The European ones are disenfranchised, radicalized, and unemployed. This is a fascinating subject that has been covered by many equally interesting books including: While Europe Slept: How Radical Islam is Destroying the West from Within and American Islam: The Struggle for the Soul of a Religion.
 Demographics and trends May 12, 2008
A good book about trends in this current time---2008. This book's relevance will last a year. It is insightful and well composed and made for a straightforward read.
Social Geeks, New Luddites, and Tech Fatales April 17, 2008
0 out of 1 found this review helpful
MicroTrends is a quick read and an amusing snapshot. I get a kick out of how easily Penn condenses entire groups of people and lifestyles into two word micro labels. While I have personally observed many of the things Penn calls out, they become all the more powerful when collectively quantified. As I was reading about Penn's Tech Fatales and the clunky design of an eight pound laptop, Apple launched its MacBook Air. Indicative of the hyper speed between trend spotting and market reaction.
Trends you may have missed March 31, 2008
2 out of 3 found this review helpful
I must confess to starting this book with something of a bad attitude.
First, the title and concept sounds like yet another catch-phrase used to sell books and promote the author's career. Secondly, many of the recommendations for the book, from powerful people like Tony Blair, suggest the author is a well-connected "insider" whose cronies will push whatever he peddles. Finally, I tend to be irritated by books that hurl thousands of statistics at the reader. And Microtrends certainly fits this category -Mark Penn is, after all, a professional pollster who lives and breathes statistics.
Still, after finishing it, I came away with a grudging respect for the book and its author. Microtrends may be a gimmick and a catch-phase, but it is probably one that deserved to be coined. And while the constant barrage of numbers does get tiring - I still don't get why statistics lovers feel the need to tell you things like, "as many people consume Brand X as live in Norway and Peru combined" - I cannot deny that a lot of what he says is interesting and potentially quite important.
What I find most compelling about Microtrends, after all my complaining about catch-prases, is the concept itself, which actually contains a rather sophisticated theory about the nature of modern (or postmodern) civilization. The theory is that while most attention is focused upon the behavior of large groups of people, micotrends -the actions and beliefs of relatively small groups of people- are becoming an increasingly important force in the world. People all over the world are creating more and more *niches* when it comes to their politics, religion, favorite sports, dating and marriage preferences, and so forth. Another interesting tendency he uncovers is that many of these trends contradict more dominant trends or other microtrends, making them difficult to see at first glance.
Ultimately, I find much of Penn's analysis a little too conventional for my tastes. He seems to view trends through the lens of the reigning cultural/political landscape, which is consistent with his background as a political pollster. While he discusses at length, and often with great insight, the implications of many trends on politics and the marketplace, he never stops to consider some of the assumptions that these institutions rest upon.
For example, he discusses the rather bizarre trend of many young people wanting to become military snipers -that is, people who, with their government's blessing, take aim at their targets from a distance and kill them. In their techniques, these snipers are similar to those who assassinate political leaders and those who go on a rampage and kill fellow workers, students or complete strangers. To his credit, Penn does casually suggest the possibility that the eagerness of some young people to become snipers may be linked to the socially unsanctioned type of sniper. However, he apparently never considers that wanting to be be *any* kind of sniper may be signs of a deep pathology in individuals and society.
Similarly, he treats the marketplace as a god beyond question. If X number of people want something, a clever marketer should figure out a way to sell it to them. He also feels the need to motivate the creation of various support groups for every microtrend. There is never any questioning of whether any microtrend is good or bad for those who partake in it or for society in general.
Granted, examining the moral or aesthetic value of the microtrends he has discovered is beyond the scope of the book. Yet, the author is the one who determines the scope of a book. Penn is apparently comfortable in his role as the objective observer. While I found Microtrends interesting and worthwhile, I find this type of dispassionate fact-gathering a bit cold and superficial. The final, and perhaps most important thing I can think to say about Microtrends, despite my misgivings, is that Penn does have a knack for identifying trends that hardly anyone else spots. This alone makes the book worth reading for those who find such things interesting.
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